Model portfolio
A public ledger of the calls we make on this blog. Each position is funded by selling SPY; residual capital stays in SPY. No rebalancing between events — what you see is what the calls actually did.
Attribution vs sector
Every entry — including closed positions and adds — measured over its own holding window against the sector ETF assigned at entry, and against SPY over the same window. This answers the fair question of whether a call was stock selection or just sector exposure.
| Ticker | Window | Entry weight | Position | Sector ETF | SPY | Excess vs sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH open | Apr 20, 2026 → now | 2% | +21.51% | +13.00% XLV | +7.57% | +8.51 pp |
| BMY open | Apr 29, 2026 → now | 2% | +11.84% | +16.62% XLV | +7.14% | -4.78 pp |
| HBAN closed | May 18, 2026 → Jul 1, 2026 | 4% | +13.87% | +12.16% KRE | +1.10% | +1.71 pp |
| USB closed | May 18, 2026 → Jul 1, 2026 | 2% | +13.00% | +12.16% KRE | +1.10% | +0.84 pp |
| GPOR open | Jul 27, 2026 → now | 2% | +14.40% | +15.34% XOP | +3.15% | -0.93 pp |
| GPOR open | Aug 5, 2026 → now | 2% | +12.94% | +18.05% XOP | -0.96% | -5.11 pp |
| DOX open | Sep 2, 2026 → now | 1% | -4.24% | — | -0.36% | — |
Price returns on both sides — dividends excluded for the position and the benchmarks alike, matching the ledger's close-price convention. Sector benchmarks are assigned at entry going forward; entries before Aug 7, 2026 were assigned retrospectively on that date (XLV for healthcare, KRE for regional banks, XOP for E&P). Resizes appear as separate entries measured from their own add date.
Event history
| Date | Action | Ticker | Target weight | Price | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | open | DOX | 1.00% | $62.46 |
dox-priced-for-zero-growth-september-2026
T+1 open per post convention (published 2026-09-01, reference close 63.06). Sized 1%: first DCF-screen name (n=1), FPI structure. Falsifiers pre-committed for the Nov/Dec FY2026 print.
|
| 2026-08-05 | resize | GPOR | 4.00% | $156.13 |
gpor-ep-sotp-july-2026
Pre-committed Q2-print add stated in the 2026-08-04 post update before execution: watch items 1-2 cleared (inventory framing reaffirmed verbatim by new CEO; no adverse type-curve print), price below the ~$162 floor-plus-plan add level. 2% -> 4% at the 2026-08-05 close $156.13 (SPY $769.79).
|
| 2026-07-27 | open | GPOR | 2.00% | $154.13 |
gpor-ep-sotp-july-2026
T+1 open (post published Fri 2026-07-24); executed Monday evening, live quote = 7/27 close 154.13; SPY 739.09
|
| 2026-07-01 | close | HBAN | 0.00% | $17.73 |
bank-cost-of-equity-correction-june-2026
Ke correction; trades above fair value
|
| 2026-07-01 | close | USB | 0.00% | $60.40 |
bank-cost-of-equity-correction-june-2026
Ke correction; reached fair value
|
| 2026-05-18 | open | HBAN | 4.00% | $15.57 |
hban-near-book-may-2026
4% initial entry at Monday May 18 close per T+1 convention (post public over the weekend); target weight 6%, accumulating at favorable prices over next 1-2 quarters
|
| 2026-05-18 | open | USB | 2.00% | $53.45 |
usb-franchise-discount-may-2026
2% initial entry at Monday May 18 close per T+1 convention (post public over the weekend); target range 3-4%, accumulating only at favorable prices over next 1-2 quarters
|
| 2026-04-29 | open | BMY | 2.00% | $57.59 |
bmy-pharma-sotp-april-2026
2% entry at Wednesday April 29 close, day before BMY Q1 print
|
| 2026-04-20 | open | UNH | 2.00% | $323.48 |
unh-sotp-april-2026
2% entry at Monday close per T+1 publishing convention
|
Methodology
- Starting NAV: $100 (normalized — dollar scale is arbitrary; only ratios matter).
- Entry: at "open" the position buys shares at the live price on the event day, funded by selling the same dollar amount of SPY at that day's SPY price.
- Fixed-at-entry: shares do not change between events. The position drifts up or down with its own market price. This is the honest measure of what the call produced.
- Absolute contrib: the dollar P&L on a position divided by starting NAV — what the call added to the portfolio's total return in percentage points. The sum across active positions reconciles to the total portfolio return minus the residual SPY drift.
- Excess contrib: the position's P&L net of what the same cost-basis capital would have earned by remaining in SPY from the position's open date to now, divided by starting NAV. The sum across active positions reconciles to the portfolio's excess return vs SPY. This is the right number to look at when judging whether the active calls were worth making.
- Benchmark: SPY. We report both absolute portfolio return and the return of holding 100% SPY since the same inception date ($710.14 at inception).
- Excess return: portfolio return minus SPY return, in percentage points. This isolates what the active calls produced beyond the index. Because the residual portfolio sits in SPY, the maximum mathematical contribution of each active call to excess is roughly its allocation percentage × (position return − SPY return).