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Model portfolio

A public ledger of the calls we make on this blog. Each position is funded by selling SPY; residual capital stays in SPY. No rebalancing between events — what you see is what the calls actually did.

explainvalue model portfolio

as of 2026-07-18 01:35 UTC · inception Apr 19, 2026 · prices refreshed every ~5 min

Portfolio return

+6.00%

SPY since inception

+4.67%

Excess vs SPY

+1.33 pp

NAV (base 100)

106.00

Ticker	Opened	Entry	Current	Target	Weight	Position return	Absolute contrib	Excess contrib
UNH	Apr 20, 2026	$323.48	$426.09	$494.00	2.48%	+31.72%	+0.63 pp	+0.54 pp
BMY	Apr 29, 2026	$57.59	$60.74	$83.00	2.00%	+5.47%	+0.11 pp	+0.02 pp
SPY (residual)	—	—	$743.29	—	95.52%	—	—	—

Event history

Date	Action	Ticker	Target weight	Price	Rationale
2026-07-01	close	HBAN	0.00%	$17.73	bank-cost-of-equity-correction-june-2026 Ke correction; trades above fair value
2026-07-01	close	USB	0.00%	$60.40	bank-cost-of-equity-correction-june-2026 Ke correction; reached fair value
2026-05-18	open	HBAN	4.00%	$15.57	hban-near-book-may-2026 4% initial entry at Monday May 18 close per T+1 convention (post public over the weekend); target weight 6%, accumulating at favorable prices over next 1-2 quarters
2026-05-18	open	USB	2.00%	$53.45	usb-franchise-discount-may-2026 2% initial entry at Monday May 18 close per T+1 convention (post public over the weekend); target range 3-4%, accumulating only at favorable prices over next 1-2 quarters
2026-04-29	open	BMY	2.00%	$57.59	bmy-pharma-sotp-april-2026 2% entry at Wednesday April 29 close, day before BMY Q1 print
2026-04-20	open	UNH	2.00%	$323.48	unh-sotp-april-2026 2% entry at Monday close per T+1 publishing convention

Methodology

Starting NAV: $100 (normalized — dollar scale is arbitrary; only ratios matter).
Entry: at "open" the position buys shares at the live price on the event day, funded by selling the same dollar amount of SPY at that day's SPY price.
Fixed-at-entry: shares do not change between events. The position drifts up or down with its own market price. This is the honest measure of what the call produced.
Absolute contrib: the dollar P&L on a position divided by starting NAV — what the call added to the portfolio's total return in percentage points. The sum across active positions reconciles to the total portfolio return minus the residual SPY drift.
Excess contrib: the position's P&L net of what the same cost-basis capital would have earned by remaining in SPY from the position's open date to now, divided by starting NAV. The sum across active positions reconciles to the portfolio's excess return vs SPY. This is the right number to look at when judging whether the active calls were worth making.
Benchmark: SPY. We report both absolute portfolio return and the return of holding 100% SPY since the same inception date ($710.14 at inception).
Excess return: portfolio return minus SPY return, in percentage points. This isolates what the active calls produced beyond the index. Because the residual portfolio sits in SPY, the maximum mathematical contribution of each active call to excess is roughly its allocation percentage × (position return − SPY return).