BMY at $61.48: Worth About $76 Under Our Updated Method

Under our updated pharma method, BMY is worth about $76 a share, 23% above Friday's close of $61.48. In April we put it at $83. The number came down, but the reasons changed. Charging Pfizer's share of Eliquis to Eliquis alone, and reading BMY's own margins from its filings, added value. A higher discount rate and Cobenfy's granted patents took value out.

If BMY never discovered another drug, we would still value it at about $55, not far below the price. At $61.48 the market pays for less than a quarter of what we credit BMY's R&D for future drugs.

On pricing. This post publishes on Sunday, October 25, 2026. Our reference price is Friday's close, $61.48. We are not trading BMY; the only portfolio change is our target, from $83 to $76. BMY reports third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29.

The value in one block

  Drugs on sale (after partner payments)              $62.26
  − Support R&D for those drugs                       −13.66
  + Named pipeline (risk-adjusted)                    +22.57
  − Cost to finish the pipeline                        −4.95
  + R&D for future drugs (engine)                     +22.59
  + Early work already paid for                        +4.15
  + Other                                              +0.19
                                                     ───────
  Operating value                                     $93.15
  + Tax losses                                         +0.11
  + Cash − claims (June 30 10-Q)                      −17.36
  ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  =  Value per share                                  $75.90

What changed since April

In April we valued BMY at $83. It is about $76 now. The method changed underneath (what changed), so there is no exact line-by-line bridge, but the big pieces are clear:

• Partner payments. BMS pays Pfizer about half of Eliquis's profit, $6.98B in 2025, and books it inside its own costs. Measured after that payment, BMS's margin carried Pfizer's share on every drug, including the ones that keep selling after Eliquis goes generic in 2028. We now charge it to Eliquis alone, which adds about $8 a share.
• BMY's own margins. We now read BMY's margins from its filings, year by year, with acquired R&D counted as a cost in the year it is booked.
• R&D. Each R&D dollar is charged once, to the job it does, so less of BMY's value rests on drugs nobody has named yet.
• The discount rate. April used 7.40%; today's is 8.12%. At April's rate BMY would be worth about $12 more.
• Cobenfy. April had Cobenfy at a $5B peak, protected to 2039. BMY's 10-K now gives granted patents to 2030, and Cobenfy is worth well under $1 a share. At April's reading it would add about $8.
• The balance sheet. Cash and claims now come from the June 30 10-Q, including the declared dividend and other claims beyond debt.

Where the value sits

Eliquis is BMS's biggest seller at $15.8B a year, but it ranks ninth by value. Pfizer's share is charged on it, and its U.S. exclusivity ends in 2028. The named pipeline is spread out: admilparant ($3.14), mezigdomide ($2.53), zola-cel ($2.19), arlo-cel ($2.09) and milvexian ($1.77) lead it, and most of its peaks are benchmark estimates. R&D for future drugs adds $26.74, about a third of the value.

Where we could be wrong

• Eliquis's own margin. We assume Eliquis earns BMS's average product margin, about 72%, before Pfizer's share. The filings don't state it. At BMS's company-wide selling costs, Eliquis's margin looks closer to 82%, which would lower the value by about $2.30, and by up to $5.70 at the limit the filing's equal split allows.
• Reblozyl. Our model now carries a separate myelofibrosis row for Reblozyl, worth $0.58. It likely double counts: the $4B Reblozyl peak traces to a 2023 company figure that already included myelofibrosis, and that trial missed its primary endpoint.
• Yervoy. One biosimilar is in trials, so we expect entry in 2028. A later entry would add value.
• The big dials. Five points of product margin move the value about $7. So does 0.1 on our R&D factor. Half a point on the discount rate gives about $69 or $84.
• Not in our numbers. The Celgene CVR suit ($6.4B alleged, which BMS disputes) would cost $3.13 if charged in full, and BioNTech's $2.0B of anniversary payments would cost $0.98.

What to watch on October 29

1. Eliquis against its raised 2026 guide.
2. Opdivo and Qvantig, and how fast intravenous Opdivo converts to the subcutaneous version.
3. Reblozyl's growth, and Yervoy's.
4. Pipeline readouts. A failure of admilparant would cost about $3, and of milvexian about $2.
5. Cobenfy's patent extension, which would add about $1.
6. The September 30 balance sheet. Each $1B of new claims costs $0.49.

Portfolio action

We hold BMY at 2%, opened on April 29 at $57.59, and move our target from $83 to $76. At today's price we would likely not open a new position, but we keep the one we have, and we will exit if BMY reaches full value.

What survives if you believe less

The price sits just above the floor. A buyer at $61.48 pays for today's drugs and named pipeline, plus less than a quarter of what we credit BMY's R&D for future drugs.

A note on process: this post was written in collaboration with an AI assistant. That should surprise no one — an automated analyst pipeline is what this site is. The valuation model, the numbers, and the sensitivity runs come from that pipeline; the assistant also helped assemble the fact base, check claims against the filings, and draft passages of this post. The thesis, the judgment calls, and the final words are mine. It ships under my name because the responsibility is mine — including any errors.