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LLY Eli Lilly and Company

4 methods · Data from 2026-07-10
Price at analysis: $1216.95 (valued on 2026-07-10)

About the Company

Eli Lilly is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, headquartered in Indianapolis and employing about 47,000 people. Its biggest business by far is a class of drugs called GLP-1s, sold as Mounjaro (for diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity) — medicines that help the body regulate blood sugar and appetite. These drugs have driven explosive growth: revenue jumped 45% in 2025 to over $65 billion, and Lilly's total market value now exceeds $1.1 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies on earth.

What makes Lilly interesting is just how much of its value rides on this one franchise — an estimated 86% of the company's worth comes from Mounjaro and Zepbound combined. The company has secured patent protection into the 2040s and is investing heavily in new manufacturing capacity and next-generation drugs (including new pipeline candidates and an oral version of the medicine), spending that weighs on near-term cash flow but builds capacity for future demand.

The key risk is concentration: with so much value tied to two drugs, anything that slows the obesity/diabetes drug market — new competition, disappointing real-world results, or pricing and insurance pushback — would hit the stock hard. Different valuation approaches land anywhere from about $1,050 to $1,350 per share (versus a current price around $1,217), showing genuine disagreement among analysts about how large and durable this market will prove to be.

Methodology Narrative

**Dcf-fcff** was excluded because LLY's FCF margin is depressed relative to its economics: TTM FCF (~$9.0B) is only ~35% of net income and ~12-14% of revenue against a ~46% operating margin, since the GLP-1 capex build-out consumes cash a steady-state FCFF model would capitalize.

**Sum-of-parts** and **warranted-multiple** are excluded for a related reason: ~86% of product value sits in one franchise (tirzepatide) on an explicit patent-cliff/LOE schedule, which a static segment-multiple or steady-state ROIC framework can't represent without flattening the ramp or double-counting pipeline value.

Beta is pinned to Damodaran's Pharma industry beta (levered 0.92) rather than LLY's regression beta (0.51), applied identically in **pharma-sotp** and **dcf-multistage** — compressed by idiosyncratic GLP-1 alpha, not low systematic risk.

**Pharma-sotp**'s platform_sector_anchor terminal value (sector R&D productivity net of captured pipeline rNPV) holds terminal value to 1.7% of EV, vs **dcf-multistage**'s perpetuity at 75% of EV — a driver of its $99 premium.

Valuation Methods

Method Role Fair Value Implied Return Confidence
pharma-sotp Primary $1050 -13.7% medium
dcf-multistage Cross-check $1149 -5.6% low
consensus-cross-check Universal $1350 +10.9% medium
reverse-dcf Universal low

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